OkieBrent's Soapbox

Labor Day used to be the starting point for political campaigns.  Not so any more.  But even in 2010, the average person has not begun paying close attention to campaigns.  Actually, there are large groups of people who do not make up their minds for whom they will vote until the last two weeks of a campaign.  There is still time to make a difference in who wins in 2010.  But the countdown has begun with the clock quickly ticking.

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For the last year, I’ve had hope that the political climate would improve for Democrats after Labor Day.  My hope is diminishing daily.  With each new poll, November 2, 2010 continues to look better for Republicans.

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Republicans are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in November.  Republicans lead in the generic D vs. R for Congress by a growing margin.  However, polling data also shows that Republicans still have higher unfavorable ratings than Democrats.  Both Republicans and Democrats favorable ratings are in the sewer.  People don’t trust either party, and I’m convinced that if “None of the above” were on ballots – it would win a majority of races.

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The economy has improved over the last two years but most people don’t feel it.  Private sector jobs are being added every month rather than the 700,000 per month being lost two years ago.   America has much better approval ratings around the world today than it did in 2008.  But the improvements being made are too slow and too small for most people.  The national mood is terrible and because Democrats control the White House, the U.S. Senate and House – Democrats get the blame for the disasters they inherited from 8 years of Bush-Cheney and 12 years of a Republican-controlled Congress.

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National Democratic leaders have continually said they remember 1994 and are prepared to prevent a repeat.  If they have a plan for doing so, it does not appear to be working.  Maybe they have a secret plan, waiting for just the right moment to put it into action.  Maybe they have a brilliant “October Surprise” yet to come.

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The DNC, DCCC, DSCC all have financial advantages over their Republican counterparts.  The only national Republican group with a cash advantage is the Republican Governors Association.  The big unknown is how much money will go to support or oppose both parties from outside groups with independent expenditures.

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There are 58 days until the General Election.  Democrats must start now working to inspire doubtful and depressed people and turn them into dedicated voters.   Otherwise, be prepared for a repeat of 1994 with Government shutdowns, congressional witch hunts, and no progress to immediately follow.

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Conventional wisdom says that Democrats are not going to have a good Election Day this coming November.  This should be a warning to those who care about our future – whether we go forwards or backwards – to get engaged and work like never before to elect our Democratic candidates.

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It could be especially bad in Oklahoma.  In the Primary Election this past Tuesday, Oklahoma Republicans set a voter turnout record for a gubernatorial primary with just over 30% of registered Republicans turning out to vote.  Only 26% of Democrats bothered to vote on Tuesday.

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There is an enthusiasm gap between the parties and Tuesday’s primary proved that in Oklahoma.  We need to change that before November 2^nd arrives.

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On the national scene, the climate seems to be improving for Democrats.  According to Gallup, Democrats have maintained a four point lead (48% to 44%) in the generic congressional match up for the last two weeks.  However, Republicans enthusiasm continues to be higher than that of Democrats by an 18-point lead (that has dropped from a 23-point lead a week ago).

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A very good thing that could help Democrats in Oklahoma is the way our two Democrats running for Governor conducted their campaigns.  Both Jari Askins and Drew Edmondson ran positive, issue-based campaigns.  At every event that I attended where both appeared prior to the Primary, the two hugged each other and treated each other with respect.  On election night after the results were known, Drew immediately endorsed Jari and said he would work to make sure she is our next Governor.

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On the Republican side, State Senator Randy Brogdon has still not endorsed their nominee Congresswoman Mary Fallin.

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I hope Oklahoma Democrats will follow the lead of Drew Edmondson and rally behind Jari Askins to be our next Governor.  We must unite now for the future of our state.

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UPDATE

I attended the Oklahoma Democrats Homecoming Rally at the Oklahoma City Zoo tonight (July 31).  Drew Edmondson wholeheartedly endorsed Jari Askins (again) for Governor.

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Jari Askins and Drew Edmondson - July 31, 2010

Here are two candidates I am proudly voting for in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary this Tuesday, July 27. I hope you will join me in supporting Drew Edmondson for Governor and Susan Paddack for State Superintendent of Public Instruction!

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The below is taken from a story in The Hill this past Friday (7/16/2010).  It is an article about seven members of Congress currently running for governor.   It is just one of many examples where Mary Fallin is predicted to be Oklahoma’s next Governor.

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Only one of the seven lawmakers running for governor is seen as a clear favorite: Rep. Mary Fallin (R-Okla.).

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Fallin decided to remain in Congress while running her campaign. But juggling congressional responsibilities and a gubernatorial election can be difficult, Fallin said.

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“It is a tough job and I am working very hard. I am visiting every county in Oklahoma before Election Day,” she said.

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All of that hard work is paying off. Both analysts said Fallin has an excellent chance in her primary on July 27.

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“I think she is going to be the next governor of Oklahoma,” Duffy said. “She is the top pick.”

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The Duffy quoted above is political analyst Jennifer Duffy with the Cook Political Report.

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Now let me take you back in time to eight years ago – 2002.

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Back before Oklahomans went to the polls in November that year, journalists, political pundits, and so-called experts were certain that Steve Largent would be Oklahoma’s next Governor.

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Charles Cook of the Cook Political Report called the 2002 race for Oklahoma Governor:

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“The second-safest Republican Governor’s seat in the country up for election”

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On August 24, 2002 CNN’s All Politics reported:

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In Oklahoma, Rep. Steve Largent is the solid favorite to win the GOP gubernatorial nod, while state Sen. Brad Henry and restaurant owner Vince Orza are battling for the Democratic nomination. Largent is favored this fall as well.

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Peter Orvetti, journalist and political pundit formerly of Orvetti.com, predicted on October 29, 2002:

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OKLAHOMA: Steve Largent (R) over Brad Henry (D), Gary Richardson (I). [GOP HOLD]

Richardson’s mid-teens support is cutting into what would otherwise be a lock for Largent, an Oklahoma superstar.  But Largent should still win comfortably.

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But then came November 5, 2002 when Oklahomans voted.

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After the 2002 Elections were over, here is what Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg wrote:

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“I didn’t even give half a second of thought to the possibility that Oklahoma Republican Steve Largent would lose his bid for governor.”

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What did Steve Largent, the-NFL-Hall-of-Famer-Superstar-with-GQ-looks-destined-to-be-the-next-Oklahoma-Governor, have to say after the election?

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“We were the heavy favorite and the underdog won.” – Steve Largent

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People like me love to talk and write about politics, love to read polls and listen to other analysts’ views, and we love to make predictions.  But so many times predictions about politics and elections are wrong.

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Sometimes, that is a really good thing.  Here’s to hoping that 2010 proves to be déjà vu-2002.

The Oklahoma Primary Election is just another two weeks away on July 27^th.  I don’t have many Democratic candidates that will appear on my Primary ballot.  There are no Democrats running in my congressional district (the 4^th) or for Corporation Commissioner, and the Democrats are already decided for Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Insurance Commissioner, State Auditor, Labor Commissioner and State Treasurer.  There is also only one Democrat running for my State House seat and for my District Attorney.

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In the races which will appear on my ballot for Oklahoma’s Primary Election, the following are the candidates that will get my vote.

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For Governor – Drew Edmondson

I am, and have been for many years, a steadfast supporter of Drew Edmondson.  As his big signs and his TV ads state – Drew truly is “tough enough to get it done.”  Drew is studious and courageous – he will do what is right, even if it is not the politically easy thing to do.  He has proven that over and over as Attorney General for the last 16 years.  I proudly support my friend Drew Edmondson for Governor.  I also want to state emphatically that my vote is for Drew – it is not against Jari Askins.  We have two of the best candidates we have ever had running for Governor this year and I will support our nominee 100% for the General Election.

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For State Superintendent – Susan Paddack

Susan Paddack is without any doubt the most experienced, best prepared and superior candidate to be our next State Superintendent of Public Instruction. Susan Paddack is my friend, but more important than that, she is a true friend to Oklahoma’s children.   A former science teacher, Susan is a strong supporter of public education.  She wants all Oklahoma students to receive the best education possible to prepare them to be whatever they want to be after graduation.  Susan is smart, she is a consensus builder, and she is the team leader we need in Oklahoma.

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For United States Senator – Mark Myles

I do not know Mark Myles, nor do I know Jim Rogers – the two Democrats vying to challenge U.S. Senator Tom Coburn.  Mr. Rogers is a perennial candidate.  I’ve never read or heard his reasons for running for any of the offices he has filed for over the years.  Mark Myles has a very impressive biography.  I encourage you to learn more about Mark Myles.

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Yes on Proposition 1 – Grady County

Voters in Grady County have the opportunity to insure the future of our seven Senior Citizen Nutrition Centers.  After DHS and Republicans in the latest Legislative Session moved Oklahoma’s senior citizens to the bottom of the list on priorities, when necessary funds were cut from the nutrition centers in Oklahoma that provide meals to thousands of senior citizens, as well as serving as locations for them to socialize and a place to cool off in air conditioning on a hot summer day, the Grady County Commissioners decided to take action.  We have the opportunity to vote in favor of a 1/8 of 1 cent county sales tax that will go specifically to help fund the nutrition centers in our county.  I encourage all Grady County voters to vote YES!

The Oklahoma Academy has hosted three Gubernatorial Issues Forums to date – on April 7th, May 6th and June 16th.  So far, the candidate that has already been crowned the winner by “experts” – Republican Mary Fallin – has failed to show up for any of the forums.

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I was told that she won’t appear at forums if there is an opportunity for questions to come from the audience – which when time allows, is something the Academy forums have allowed.

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So, the leading Republican won’t take questions from regular Oklahomans and requires all questions in advance for her to participate in discussions and debates on issues that the next Governor will most certainly have to deal with.  Does this mean she is too dumb to answer questions off the cuff?  If she is elected, will she make the same requirement before she speaks to any in the media?  Is that the type of leader Oklahoma needs?  Hardly.

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As for Mary Fallin already being crowned as Oklahoma’s next Governor – how soon our memories fail us.  Back in 2002 we were guaranteed Steve Largent would be Oklahoma’s next Governor.  Thankfully, the “experts” and the polls were wrong back then.  Let’s hope that 2010 will prove them wrong again.

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The most recent Oklahoma Academy Issues Forum which occurred Wednesday, June 16th will air in its entirety tomorrow – Sunday, June 20th – at 11:00 a.m. on KGOU/KROU.  This Forum also included all the candidates for State Superintendent of Public Instruction and focused mostly on education issues.

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UPDATE: Wednesday, June 30th

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The Oklahoma Academy hosted its fourth forum today for the candidates running to be our next Governor.  Once again, Mary Fallin was a no-show.  This is from the Associated Press:

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Attorney General Drew Edmondson and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, the Democratic candidates, and Republican candidates Roger Jackson and Robert Hubbard were on hand for the event at Cameron University.

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Forum organizers say Republican hopeful, state Sen. Randy Brogdon, was scheduled to appear but didn’t. U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin didn’t plan to attend.

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You can read more in the Tulsa World or The Oklahoman.

As posted earlier, 586 candidates filed for state office by the close of filing.  Today was the last day to withdraw from the ballot, or to file a challenge to a candidate.

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Eleven candidates withdrew their names, making the total number of candidates 575.   Ten candidates have had challenges filed against them – with one of those candidates having two challenges filed.

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I think the one thing that strikes me as not typical to filing periods of the past is the number of incumbents who are being challenged by members of their own political party, especially at the congressional level.

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Senator Tom Coburn, who is considered one of the most conservative members of the United States Senate, is being challenged from the right.  Two Republicans filed against him.  The one that may be the most fun to follow is Lewis Kelly Spring.  His website is listed on the right under Republican Candidates.

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Republican First District Congressman John Sullivan has a whopping five Republicans challenging him.  An Independent also filed, while no Democrat did.

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Democratic Second District Congressman Dan Boren is being challenged by State Senator Jim Wilson in the primary.  Six Republicans filed in this district.

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Republican Third District Congressman Frank Lucas is the only one who did not draw a primary challenger.  He will face the same Democrat he did two years ago.

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Republican Fourth District Congressman Tom Cole drew one Republican challenger.  No Democrat or Independent filed which means this race will be decided on July 27.

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The Fifth District is the only one with an open seat this year.  Two Democrats filed, seven Republicans filed, and two Independents filed.  That is eleven candidates in one district!

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No matter who wins in the following races, those who take the oath of office in January 2011 will be new to the office: Governor, Lt. Governor, State Superintendent of Public Instruction, Attorney General, and State Treasurer.

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Things are going to get interesting in Oklahoma.

At the end of the filing period yesterday, a total of 586 candidates filed for state offices.  That number did not break the records as had been predicted.

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When I have a little more time, I’ll highlight some of the more interesting developments!

That is the number of candidates that filed for office today at the State Capitol, the first day of filing.

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To view the list of candidates, go to the State Election Board website.

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Of those who filed as candidates so far:

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• 4 filed as Independents
• 96 filed as Democrats
• 134 filed as Republicans
• 157 filed for non-partisan races (Judges)

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Of those 391 who filed on the first day:

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• 82 filed for Associate District Judge
• 1 filed for Attorney General
• 3 filed for Commissioner of Labor
• 1 filed for Corporation Commissioner
• 32 filed for District Attorney
• 75 filed for District Judge
• 5 filed for Governor
• 2 filed for Insurance Commissioner
• 2 filed for Lieutenant Governor
• 1 filed for State Auditor
• 132 filed for State Representative
• 31 filed for State Senator
• 3 filed for State Treasurer
• 3 filed for State Superintendent
• 15 filed for US Congress
• 3 filed for US Senator

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Filing will continue through the close of business Wednesday, June 9th.