Labor Day used to be the starting point for political campaigns. Not so any more. But even in 2010, the average person has not begun paying close attention to campaigns. Actually, there are large groups of people who do not make up their minds for whom they will vote until the last two weeks of a campaign. There is still time to make a difference in who wins in 2010. But the countdown has begun with the clock quickly ticking.
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For the last year, I’ve had hope that the political climate would improve for Democrats after Labor Day. My hope is diminishing daily. With each new poll, November 2, 2010 continues to look better for Republicans.
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Republicans are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in November. Republicans lead in the generic D vs. R for Congress by a growing margin. However, polling data also shows that Republicans still have higher unfavorable ratings than Democrats. Both Republicans and Democrats favorable ratings are in the sewer. People don’t trust either party, and I’m convinced that if “None of the above” were on ballots – it would win a majority of races.
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The economy has improved over the last two years but most people don’t feel it. Private sector jobs are being added every month rather than the 700,000 per month being lost two years ago. America has much better approval ratings around the world today than it did in 2008. But the improvements being made are too slow and too small for most people. The national mood is terrible and because Democrats control the White House, the U.S. Senate and House – Democrats get the blame for the disasters they inherited from 8 years of Bush-Cheney and 12 years of a Republican-controlled Congress.
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National Democratic leaders have continually said they remember 1994 and are prepared to prevent a repeat. If they have a plan for doing so, it does not appear to be working. Maybe they have a secret plan, waiting for just the right moment to put it into action. Maybe they have a brilliant “October Surprise” yet to come.
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The DNC, DCCC, DSCC all have financial advantages over their Republican counterparts. The only national Republican group with a cash advantage is the Republican Governors Association. The big unknown is how much money will go to support or oppose both parties from outside groups with independent expenditures.
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There are 58 days until the General Election. Democrats must start now working to inspire doubtful and depressed people and turn them into dedicated voters. Otherwise, be prepared for a repeat of 1994 with Government shutdowns, congressional witch hunts, and no progress to immediately follow.
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Conventional wisdom says that Democrats are not going to have a good Election Day this coming November. This should be a warning to those who care about our future – whether we go forwards or backwards – to get engaged and work like never before to elect our Democratic candidates.
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It could be especially bad in Oklahoma. In the Primary Election this past Tuesday, Oklahoma Republicans set a voter turnout record for a gubernatorial primary with just over 30% of registered Republicans turning out to vote. Only 26% of Democrats bothered to vote on Tuesday.
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There is an enthusiasm gap between the parties and Tuesday’s primary proved that in Oklahoma. We need to change that before November 2nd arrives.
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On the national scene, the climate seems to be improving for Democrats. According to Gallup, Democrats have maintained a four point lead (48% to 44%) in the generic congressional match up for the last two weeks. However, Republicans enthusiasm continues to be higher than that of Democrats by an 18-point lead (that has dropped from a 23-point lead a week ago).
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A very good thing that could help Democrats in Oklahoma is the way our two Democrats running for Governor conducted their campaigns. Both Jari Askins and Drew Edmondson ran positive, issue-based campaigns. At every event that I attended where both appeared prior to the Primary, the two hugged each other and treated each other with respect. On election night after the results were known, Drew immediately endorsed Jari and said he would work to make sure she is our next Governor.
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On the Republican side, State Senator Randy Brogdon has still not endorsed their nominee Congresswoman Mary Fallin.
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I hope Oklahoma Democrats will follow the lead of Drew Edmondson and rally behind Jari Askins to be our next Governor. We must unite now for the future of our state.
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UPDATE
I attended the Oklahoma Democrats Homecoming Rally at the Oklahoma City Zoo tonight (July 31). Drew Edmondson wholeheartedly endorsed Jari Askins (again) for Governor.
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Jari Askins and Drew Edmondson - July 31, 2010
Here are two candidates I am proudly voting for in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary this Tuesday, July 27. I hope you will join me in supporting Drew Edmondson for Governor and Susan Paddack for State Superintendent of Public Instruction!
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The above video is from today’s Washington Post. I admire and respect Tammy Duckworth who is an Iraq War Veteran. I thank all those serving in our military today, and all those who have done so in the past.
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